Christopher Phillips: The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2016.
From the jihadi organizations Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq, Middle-East politics has seen struggles over regimes, state forms, and geopolitics for more than a century. Syria’s civil war has combined all of these kinds of conflict in one cauldron. Civil wars are often the worst kind, as our own civil war demonstrated, inflicting more deaths on Americans that World War I, World War II, and the Korean War combined. In Syria, estimates are that as of the beginning of 2017, 470,000 had been killed, approximately five million exiled, and nearly seven million displaced within their country—a nation of 21 million before the war began. As I write this review in July 2017, no respite from this suffering can be seen, or anticipated.
The ancient Greeks called the Assyrians the Syrioi, and the name became attached to their place, although they were neither the first nor the last to occupy it. The long list of its conquerors comprises most of the nations of the Bible: Amorites, Hittites, Canaanites, Phoenicians, Arameans, Egyptians, Sumerians, Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Macedonians, Romans—all have ruled it. The Israelites got as far as the port city of Tyre, now in Lebanon. Most famously for us, Saul of Tarsus met God on the road to Damascus, regaining his sight when he finally arrived there. Damascus has been called the oldest inhabited city in the world, with its origins in ‘pre-history’: its violent past and present suggest that human beings progress technologically but not so much morally or politically. Saul’s new-found inner light found some who attended to it, but not enough to bring peace to Syria. And even if he had found more converts there, men being what they are, they would have been just as likely to make war with one another over the legacy of the Prince of Peace.
The map tells why men always fight over Syria. Not only does it form the northwest corner of the Fertile Crescent, but its coastline along the Mediterranean afforded access to one of the richest trading networks in the ancient world. Syria has much to love, but love is exclusive and the jealousy of rival lovers fosters hatred. And because each new band of loving and hating conquerors has left a remnant in this place, Syria encompasses dozens of tribal, ethnic, and religious groups—a kaleidoscope of factions some centuries old, many inclined to tear at one another. We need therefore to think about what it takes humanly to govern such a place, to make peace in it.
To govern its factions, a community needs some overarching understanding of right; it also needs ruling institutions which derive their authority from that standard of right. This is to say that enemy factions need to find some common sphere of moral agreement. The United States of America (for example) has in it far more ethnic and religious groups than Syria does. It has lived in relative peace with itself for more than two centuries by acknowledging the laws of nature and of nature’s God as its overarching understanding of right. When too many Americans denied those laws, our one civil war resulted. This understanding has been instantiated in a set of ruling institutions approved by the American people—again, denied by a critical mass among us only that once. The American regime of federal and commercial republicanism was founded upon a source of right that does not require its citizens to adhere to any particular religious confession, or to belong to any particular ethnic group, in order to enjoy the rights of citizens.
Another, and historically more common solution to the problem of factionalism has been (and to some degree remains) monarchic empire. Paul the Apostle’s mission was much helped by his status as a subject within the Roman Empire, wherein Syria stood as an important province. A monarch-emperor stations himself above the erstwhile warring factions and rules them by keeping them divided but balanced among themselves. He takes care to redress any imbalances that arise, rather like a parent governs a set of unruly children. And like such a parent, he also takes care that his subjects do not find common cause to unite against him. And so, traditionally, such monarchs have allowed each ethnic and religious community within their empires a substantial degree of self-governance in exchange for tribute and for loyalty in war.
When in 640 A.D. Muslims arrived in Syria, they found a set of peoples that had found peace, when they found it, under imperial rule. The Muslim rulers changed nothing in that respect, and Damascus became the capital of the caliphate ruled by the Umayyid Dynasty, the largest empire in history to that point, spanning 5.8 million square miles from today’s Spain to today’s Pakistan. Enforcing the principle of dhimmitude or subordination, the caliph allowed the various religious groups to manage their own affairs insofar as these did not impinge upon tax collection and other activities reserved to the emperor. Among those subject to dhimmitude were the Alawite Muslims, a Shi’ite Muslim sect, founded in the 9th century. The Alawites are “Twelver” Muslims who especially revere Ali, whom they believe to have been the first of the Twelve Imams. Today, they number approximately three million, half of them in Syria, clustered along the coastline, but also in Lebanon (200,000), Turkey (500,000), and Germany (70,000).
Syria’s longest time of peace in recent centuries came under the empire of the Ottoman Turks, who expelled the Egyptian empire of the Mamluks in 1516 and stayed for the next four centuries, making Damascus part of the pilgrimage route to Mecca. France replaced the Ottomans in the wake of the First World War, withdrawing finally in 1946. While there, the French had allied with the minority Allawites, using them as a counter to the majority Sunnis. The borders of Syria set by France in the 1920s had no regard for pre-existing social-political patterns; emperors, whether monarchic or republican, want to rule by dividing, and national unity in their provinces is anathema to them. Although France made some efforts to bring its mission civilisitrice to Syria, a young army officer named Charles de Gaulle was unimpressed; “I don’t think we are making much of an impression here,” he wrote in a letter to his wife, in the early 1930s.
Thus, when finally independent, more than 70 years ago, Syria became a sovereign state without having a real nation—the peoples of the region never having existed as a single ethnic or religious entity. What kind of regime could hold it together, let alone bring Syrians some modicum of justice?
For a brief time Syrians attempted republicanism. That regime collapsed after it and its allies failed to destroy Israel in the 1948 war. In their ‘civilizing mission,’ French imperial rulers had proved better at training the Syrian military officers than at preparing Syrians for self-government. A series of military dictatorships followed, with eight successful coups between 1949 and 1970. After aligning with the Soviet bloc in the aftermath of the 1956 Suez Canal War, Syrians soon found themselves more and more at the mercy of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party, which was funded and advised by Moscow. In neighboring Iraq, the Ba’ath Party was headed by Saddam Hussein; after another defeat by Israel in 1967, in which it lost the Golan Heights, Syrian was ripe for yet another strongman. The Assad family, long prominent among the Alawites, took charge of the Syrian Ba’athists and the government in 1970. Hafez al-Assad ruled until his death in 2000, providing some stability along with much tyranny. He was succeeded by his son, Bashar al-Assad, who continues to rule the Alawite ‘rump state’ to this day.
Syria as a nation-state reproduced (on a smaller scale) the sort of regime it had under imperialism—a monarchy—but without the advantages that imperial monarchs had enjoyed: military and economic power with resources drawn from beyond the borders of Syria itself. The Assads have attempted to rule like imperialists, taking the already-divided groups in the country and keep them both divided from one another and dependent upon the regime. This works, except when it doesn’t: the current civil war isn’t the first one. In the 1970s, thousands of Syrians died in a revolt organized by the Muslim Brotherhood, the international Sunni Islamist organization that now rules in Turkey and also, briefly, in Egypt. In 1982, Hafez al-Assad had 10,000 of them slaughtered when they tried to seize the city of Hama.
Syria is Iraq in reverse. In Iraq, Ba’athists who were Sunni Muslims ruled a much larger group of Shi’as and Sunni Kurds. In Syria, Alawite Ba’athists who are Shi’a Muslims constitute a minority who rule a majority of Sunni Muslims, including Kurds (who are about 10% of the population), among numerous other ethnic groups. To complicate matters still further, unlike Iraq there is a substantial Christian population (also about 10%, before the war), themselves divided into several sects and ethnicities.
Whenever a state ruling such a heterogeneous population weakens, foreign states start circling, looking for advantage, and usually finding one or more factions eager for foreign backing. In the Middle East this is especially true in any conflict involving Sunnis and Shi’ites. Iran has close political and financial ties to the Syrian Alawites in addition to their other regional allies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. As U. S. troops began to withdraw from Iran’s eastern border, Afghanistan, and its western border, Iraq, the Iranian regime saw an opportunity to build an arc of influence throughout the region, encircling the great prizes of Mecca and the Arabian oil fields. This alarmed the region’s Sunnis, including the Saudis, the Jordanians, the Egyptians, and the Turks—the latter two longtime imperial rulers of Syria. What is more, the Russians have retained their interests in the region and their ties to the Ba’athist Party, their Cold-War ally. Israel, with its concerns about Hezbollah, its interest in the Golan Heights, and its own worries about the Iranians, remains vigilant. Also regarding Iran, it is important to remark that the Iranian economy is heavily dependent upon Russia and China, to the point where it is regarded by those greater powers as a source of military support for their interests in dominating the ‘World Island’ described by Halford Mackinder, more than a hundred years ago.
The League of Nations and then the United Nations were designed to control such interventions by providing a non-imperial, even commercial-republican, force in world politics. In the Middle East, this mean that the defunct Ottoman Empire would be divided into colonies controlled by the remaining commercial-republic European empires, which were to prepare the populations there for independence as responsible sovereign states in the dreamed-of ‘world community.’ As we know, the League of Nations collapsed under the pressure of political regimes whose moral principles were antithetical to those of President Wilson and his colleagues at Versailles. The United Nations has survived the regime incoherence of its members, but can rarely summon the firepower to do much. The exception was the First Gulf War in the early 1990s, when the United States stood dominant in a world newly free of the Soviet empire. President George H. W. Bush’s ‘New World Order’ didn’t survive that decade, and both Russia and China have blocked U.N. military action throughout the course of the Syrian war. Although a smaller, regional organization might in principle act where the U.N. cannot, and although the Arab League has sanctioned Syria, its main action has been to send weapons to its Sunna Arab allies in the country. Members states also have happily allowed their home-grown jihadis to join the fight; after all, if the jihadis win the Sunnis will be rid of a Shi’a regime, to the disadvantage of Iran, and if they lose many will not live to return to their homelands to disturb the peace there.
Had the Alawite/Ba’athist regime collapsed, we might have seen removal of many elements of Syrian military personnel and some equipment to their brother Shi’a in Lebanon, Hezbollah. That is, Shi’a power in the region would have regrouped, re-concentrated nearer Israel, but it would not have disappeared. Both Israel and Iran would have regarded their circumstances as diminished, a point that would not have improved the temper of either of these antagonists, although the Sunnis would have been content.
But that’s not what happened. The Alawites hung on, and the war took a different direction. Why?
After taking over from his late father, Bashar al-Assad did what new tyrants very often do: he moved to consolidate his power. He narrowed his support base to those he knew to be loyal. In doing so, he excluded some tribal networks he didn’t fully trust. Among those he didn’t fully trust were the Kurds, who have ties with Kurdish populations in Turkey and in Iraq, where they had achieved a substantial degree of self-government following the Second Gulf War. This exclusion understandably led to feelings of estrangement among these elements, making the newly-excluded groups more inclined to rebel, if the opportunity arose.
It did, thanks to several converging factors. Between 1950 and 2010, the Syrian population increased six-fold. This brought urbanization, as young men sought jobs. But they weren’t finding them. High unemployment of military-age men is seldom wholesome in a religious culture which valorizes war. A severe drought in the years 2006-10 brought discontent to the countryside, as well. Added to corruption and increased nepotism in the regime (part of that regime-purging strategy of Assad), along the perennially factitious character of Syrian society itself, a volatile mixture was ready for a spark. That was the 2011 Arab Spring, which raised hopes of overthrowing tyrannical regimes throughout Muslim North Africa and the Arab Peninsula.
Assad’s consolidation of power turned out to be the proverbial double-edged sword. It did give excluded groups incentive to abandon the regime. But it also made the core of that regime stronger. Tyrannies and oligarchies typically collapse when the ruling group or groups themselves start to factionalize, as seen in the Syria of the Fifties and Sixties, with its succession of coups. But Assad had (in Phillips’s word) ‘coup-proofed’ his regime. It was, in Lenin’s famous phrase when he purged the Bolshevik Party, “smaller but better”—better for the tyrant. Although some army units deserted early in the conflict, most stood firm, including the army officers and the Mukhabarat—the intelligence agencies which had been set up by the East German Stasi during the Cold War. The Stasi were the most feared (because the most ruthlessly efficient) of all the Soviet-era intelligence and security services, superior even to the KGB itself. No Syrian tyrant would want to be without an intelligence agency trained by them.
As a result, during the Arab Spring, as other, less tightly-controlled tyrannical state apparatuses in northern Africa collapsed, the Syrian regime survived. Once Russia’s premier, Vladimir Putin, decided to increase his support for the regime in 2014, three years after the war began, he could tip the balance of forces in favor of Assad’s survival.
Looking at the geopolitical dimension of the struggle, Phillips emphasizes that no one in or outside of the Middle East adequately understood Syria; no one had adequate ‘intel.’ Not the Americans or the Russians, but also not the Turks, the Saudis, or the Iranians. (Evidently also not the Assad regime or its enemies, for that matter, all of whom miscalculated when assessing the others). At the same time, ‘everyone’ wanted to jump in, perceiving risks if they did not and opportunities if they did. This ignorance was understandable. The tyrannical character of the Syrian regime made it hard to understand the conditions prevailing in the country; to this day, for example, estimates of the Alawite population are just that: estimates. Also, the foreign regimes had been preoccupied with other crises: the Chinese naval buildup in the South China Sea; the war in Iraq; a series of crises in Eastern Europe; the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The list was long, and no government has the ability to concentrate effectively on more than a few ‘issues’ at once.
Begin with the United States. The Obama Administration assumed that Syria would be another flower to bloom in the Arab Spring. This assumption prevailed especially among those called the ‘idealist’ members of the administration—human-rights advocates like UN delegate Samantha Powers and National Security Adviser Susan Rice, who argued with the ‘realists,’ including Defense Secretary William Gates and, yes, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who took a somewhat less optimistic view of any proposed American intervention. In Phillips’s account, only our ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, saw that Assad’s fall was not imminent, but his on-the-ground counsel was dismissed. Therefore, when Obama called for Assad’s ouster in August 2011, his administration embarked on a policy without a strategy. Just as the Bush Administration had intervened in Iraq in 2003 without a serious strategy for guiding the regime change it had begun, so the Obama Administration officials supposed that the political side of things would take care of themselves, and that the result would be democracy, or at least some more benevolent thing than Ba’athism. Phillips does praise Obama for rejecting any major military involvement, unlike Bush.
Meanwhile, almost all of the regional forces, from the Syrian rebel groups to the Qataris to the Turks to the Saudis, overestimated U. S. power in the region and also overestimated President Obama’s willingness to use it, once the 2012 elections were out of the way. They had been profoundly impressed by the Americans’ capacity to overthrow that other Ba’athist, Saddam Hussein, while cynically underestimated Obama’s reluctance to repeat such an action in Syria. When no intervention materialized, they charged Obama with ‘betrayal,’ even if they only thing he betrayed was their own wishful thinking.
Turning next to America’s regional allies, Saudi Arabia had viewed the U. S. intervention in Iraq as a setback. It had increased the power of the Shi’a in Iraq, and therefore the power of Iran in the region. Further, the Ba’athist Party is secular-socialist, whereas the Saudis are neither, and the Alawites are Shi’as; the two intertwined elements of the Assad regime are the enemies of the Saudi regime, in principle. When Assad’s regime seemed strong, in 200-10, the Saudis had sought détente with it. But when the civil war began they backed non-jihadi Sunni rebels, including the surviving remnant of the Muslim Brotherhood. In this, they sought to prevent yet another Iranian advance in the region.
On the northern border of Syria, Turkey was by now itself a Muslim Brotherhood regime, thus aligned with that section of the Syrian population and the interests of the Saudis. On the other hand, no Turkish-Saudi alliance will ever be strong and lasting, inasmuch as the Saudis recall the Ottomans’ 400-year rule over their territory. The post-Ottoman Turkish regime of Mustafa Kemal had been secularist and Western-oriented, but the Muslim Brotherhood regime under Erdogan wanted to be more ‘Muslim,’ and consequently to redirect its geopolitical attention to the Middle East. They also wanted to keep a tight clamp on the Syrian Kurds, given the restive Kurdish population in their own country, and further to oppose the jihadi elements on the Syrian battlefield, including al-Qaeda. But the Turks had the same disadvantage as the Western countries and Russia: very few diplomats or other ‘operatives’ spoke Arab, and they generally had little knowledge of the country. Although the Arab Spring had on balance improved Turkey’s position in the region by eliminating secularist regimes, Turkish ability to exploit that position was limited by the same assumption shared by the U. S.—namely, that Assad was about to go away.
The first foreign country to send substantial financial aid to the Syrian opposition groups was Qatar. It sent more aid in the first two years of the war than any other foreign country, and they also established a training base on their soil for the rebel soldiers to be trained by Americans, who have a military base there. Although very small, Qatar is also very rich, and its rulers are ambitious for regional influence. It has the advantage of being less factionalized than many of the other states in the region, so it can pursue coherent policies over a long period of time. Being a Sunni country which nonetheless has ties with Iran (they share a huge natural gas field), they try to maintain their independence from all other countries in the region—much to the displeasure of their fellow Gulf-state Sunnis. Because Saudi Arabia eventually eclipsed them as the principal Sunni backer of the rebels, and because the Saudis take strong exception to Qatar’s dealings with the Iranians, the Syrian opposition groups worry that they will be whipsawed between the two. With two different countries backing different rebel groups, fighting among the rebels—already damaging—may intensify.
The two main foreign countries backing the Assad regime are Iran and Russia. Iran’s alliance with Hezbollah in Lebanon links them to the most effective Arab fighting force in the region. Iran sends money and weapons; Hezbollah fights. In the five years prior to the war, Syrian-Iranian trade grew four times. That level of economic benefit may never return, but they will continue to make serious sacrifices to keep Assad afloat, if only for sectarian and geopolitical reasons. Also, Syria was the conduit for Iranian supplies to Hezbollah, which aims at destroying Israel and getting rid of American and other Western powers in the Middle East—prime Iranian goals. In 2013-14, Phillips reports, the top Iranian military adviser, Hussein Suleiman of the Republican Guards, reorganized Syrian army forces, which he regarded as substandard. This accounts in part for the army’s improved battlefield performance in the last couple of years.
Getting the Western powers out of the Middle East would make Mr. Putin happy, as well. You will recall that the first term of the Obama Administration, through 2012, was the period of the attempted ‘reset’ of U. S.-Russian relations. The Russians adroitly took advantage of such wishful thinking, stringing the Americans along with empty negotiations over Assad’s removal, something they never intended to agree to.
Putin took the Arab Spring to be an Islamist, not a nationalist or democratic, phenomenon. As such, he disliked it, thinking of the 14% of the Russian population that is Muslim. He also rejected regime change as a policy, considering it impractical in the Middle East and potentially threatening to his own regime. Putin also saw that Assad and the Alawites were more unified than any other major group in Syria, whereas the opposition groups were not only torn by personal rivalries but lacking in political experience. Assad’s problem wasn’t that the Alawites were disunited in principle but that in ‘coup-proofing’ his government he had split up the military and security forces into several pieces, so as to prevent them from getting together to overthrow him. Nonetheless, Putin calculated that Assad was the better bet than any other group or combination of groups in the country; even in the worst case, the Alawites would likely retain control of the coast, where the Russians have a small but useful naval station. Finally, Putin correctly saw that the Western alliance was irresolute; unlike the Arabs, he took Obama’s reluctance to engage there to be real. He and the Iranian mullahs wanted victory more intensely.
Among the opposition groups themselves, the jihadis were the most effective: more committed, better trained, less easy to buy off. As mentioned various foreign countries backed different groups, exacerbating the already-existing factionalism among them. ISIS (Islamic State in Syria) began as an extension of ISIL (the Iraqi-based Islamic State in the Levant), itself formerly called AQI (al-Qaeda in Iraq). The group split from al-Qaeda over a strategic dispute. The late Osama bin Laden had argued that modern states are much too powerful to permit the founding of a new caliphate. The modern states first need to be critically weakened and discouraged by a relentless campaign of terrorism and guerilla warfare. Islamic State leaders disagreed, claiming that the Iraqi state was sufficiently weak to enable the founding of the caliphate, which they proceeded to do with some initial success. Civil-war-torn Syria looked like another excellent opportunity for expanding the caliphate into another chaotic landscape.
As a result of all these forces and events, by summer 2014 the war was stalemated. It was a year later, in summer 2015, that Putin ordered a substantial Russian troop buildup in Syria, effectively mimicking the U. S. ‘surge’ in Iraq, a few years earlier. The Russian ‘surge’ successfully reinforced Assad’s regime, blocking any possibility of American-backed regime change while discouraging jihadist forces in Russia and boosting Russia’s drive for equal status with the United States (which he had signaled by his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Not incidentally, he could now use his enhanced position in Syria as a bargaining chip with the West in Eastern Europe.
What does the future look like?
First, with the decline of ISIS, the al-Qaeda strategy stands as vindicated. The terror-and-guerilla-warfare approach will continue, not the caliphate strategy.
Second, the destruction of civil society gives young men nothing much to do but fight. According to the geopolitical analyst David Goldman, who writes under the pseudonym of “Spengler,” in intractable conflicts like the one in Syria, this typically continues until about 30% of the military-age men in the society are dead.
Third, Syria as we knew it may be gone, permanently. There is no single, legitimate authority there, none visible on the horizon, and hence no security. This means that the state will likely break up, with new borders. One estimate claims that to reconstitute the old Syria a force of 450,000 security personnel, probably under the prolonged supervision of about 150,000 foreigners, would be needed. That doesn’t seem likely. Woodrow Wilson had envisioned the League of Nations as enforcing peace with a military entity drawn from many nations representing “the major force of mankind.” The successor to the League, the UN, can’t muster that kind of force any more than the League did. Wilson supposed that the League would work because humanity had progressed, learning the horrifying lessons of the Great War. Evidently not. The several Muslim states and paramilitary organizations have supposed that Allah would side with them, reuniting the region. That hasn’t happened, either.
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